Lula holds a strong lead in trader consensus for first place in Pará during the October 25 second round, reflecting his first-round performance in the state where he captured 49.91% of valid votes to Flávio Bolsonaro’s 44.5%. Multiple September and early October polls from institutes including AtlasIntel, Real Time Big Data, and Quaest consistently showed the president ahead by 5–10 points in both first- and second-round scenarios among Pará voters. The state’s large electorate and northern regional dynamics have favored Lula’s coalition in recent cycles. Bolsonaro’s lower positioning aligns with higher rejection rates recorded in pre-election surveys. Late shifts remain possible ahead of the runoff, though no major new developments have emerged since the October 4 first-round results.