Flavio Bolsonaro’s commanding position in the Minas Gerais second-round market reflects his first-round victory in the bellwether state on October 4, where he secured 48.2% to President Lula’s 43.3%, alongside stronger-than-expected national results that triggered a runoff on October 25. Right-wing consolidation has accelerated since then, with endorsements from eliminated candidates including former Minas governor Romeu Zema and Ronaldo Caiado, plus support from parties such as PP, União Brasil, Republicanos, and segments of the MDB. Pre-runoff polling shows Flavio maintaining or widening leads in Minas and nationally, driven by voter shifts toward change-oriented messaging and regional alliances. Scenarios that could narrow the gap include unexpectedly high Lula turnout in urban centers like Belo Horizonte, late-breaking economic data, or strong debate performances, though the compressed timeline limits opportunities for major reversals. Trader consensus prices this outcome at 91.5% implied probability.