Flavio Bolsonaro holds a commanding lead in Mato Grosso do Sul for first place in the October 25 presidential runoff, reflecting his 58-59% first-round performance in the state on October 4, where he carried 73 of 79 municipalities. Recent state-level polls, including IPR and IPEMS surveys from late September and early October, show him ahead by 15-20 points or more against Lula in second-round matchups, consistent with broader Center-West trends favoring the PL candidate. MDB state support announced in mid-October adds to organizational advantages in interior areas. Trader consensus at 98.5% for Flavio aligns with these margins, though shifts in turnout among undecided voters or late developments in the final ten days could still narrow the gap.