**Flavio Bolsonaro holds an 83.5% implied probability of finishing first in Amapá in the October 25 runoff against Lula, who sits at 16.5%.** The first round on October 4 produced an extremely close result in the small northern state, with Lula edging Flavio 45.71% to 45.67% (a 225-vote margin out of roughly 465,000 valid votes). Other candidates took the remainder. Nationally, Flavio led with 47% to Lula’s 45%, sending the race to a second round. Right-leaning candidates performed strongly across most regions outside the Northeast, and remaining first-round votes are expected to consolidate more heavily behind Flavio. Pre-election polling in Amapá had shown a tight or slight Lula edge, but the national momentum for the PL candidate and the limited size of the Amapá electorate appear to be driving trader consensus toward a Flavio win there in the runoff. No major new state-specific developments have emerged since the first-round results.