Lula holds a 65.5% implied probability of finishing first among Brazilian expatriate voters in the October 25 runoff, reflecting first-round patterns where he captured 47.6% of valid abroad ballots to Flávio Bolsonaro’s 43.5%. Lula prevailed in the majority of reporting countries, driven by strong support in European hubs such as Portugal, Germany, and France, while Flávio dominated the large U.S. bloc. The roughly 916,000 registered overseas voters showed consistent left-leaning geographic splits that national polls—where Flávio leads overall—do not fully capture. High abstention rates and the limited scope of right-wing consolidation abroad have kept trader consensus aligned with these established diaspora preferences.