Escalating Iranian attacks on commercial vessels in the Strait of Hormuz, with a record 12 incidents reported in the week of October 5–11 amid the ongoing U.S.-Israel conflict, have driven the market-implied odds to 91.5% for an average of 0–5 ships transiting daily by month-end. AIS-visible traffic has collapsed to roughly 4–8 per day recently versus a pre-crisis norm near 85, as major carriers reroute and war-risk premiums reach 15–30 times baseline levels, sharply curtailing oil and container flows. Kpler data show crude throughput at 8.5–12.6 million barrels per day in mid-October, well below the 17 million baseline. With resolution unlikely before October 31, only a rapid de-escalation or effective naval convoy surge could lift volumes into higher buckets.