Elevated crude oil prices near $100 per barrel for WTI, driven by Middle East supply uncertainties, and limited progress toward a finalized Hormuz Strait shipping agreement by the October 23 deadline have anchored market-implied odds on the "no agreement or oil at or above $80" branches. These scenarios dominate with Democratic Senate control priced at 62.4% and Republican control at 33.0%, consistent with broader 2026 midterm trader consensus favoring Democrats around 63-64%. The combined "agreement plus oil below $80" outcomes remain thinly traded near 5% total, reflecting both the narrow six-day window for any deal and the distance oil would need to fall before the November 3 midterms. Recent Iran-Oman talks on transit routes remain conditional and unresolved, sustaining uncertainty around energy benchmarks and their potential spillover to election sentiment.