Persistent high Brent crude prices near $102–105 per barrel, driven by repeated attacks on shipping and sharply reduced flows through the Strait of Hormuz, position the “No Agreement or Oil ≥ $80” outcomes as the clear market leaders. Recent Iranian strikes on vessels, including sinkings in mid-October, have kept supply risks elevated despite Trump administration statements ruling out pre-midterm escalation and claims of productive talks. With the Oct 23 agreement deadline only days away and no comprehensive deal materializing, traders see little scope for oil to fall below $80 before the November 3 midterms. Democratic Senate control remains the favored resolution in these scenarios at 62.1% implied probability, consistent with current polling edges and the limited near-term catalysts that could shift control.