Persistent geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, including eroding confidence in the temporary U.S.-Iran ceasefire and Strait of Hormuz reopening, have kept Brent and WTI crude above $100 per barrel in mid-October 2026, well above the $80 threshold. Recent U.S. statements ruling out strikes before the November 3 midterms have eased some immediate risk but failed to deliver a durable agreement, sustaining the oil premium amid ongoing violations and limited export recovery. These conditions underpin trader consensus around the dominant outcomes—no full Hormuz pact or oil at or above $80—where Democratic Senate control holds 60.6% implied probability versus 34.1% for Republicans, consistent with current polling showing Democrats favored to flip the chamber. The low probabilities attached to an agreement-plus-sub-$80 scenario reflect the narrow window to resolution and entrenched supply uncertainty.