**Professora Dorinha (União) and Vicentinho Júnior (PSDB) advanced from the October 4 first round to a October 25 runoff in Tocantins, with Dorinha at 45.52% and Vicentinho at 43.94% of valid votes.** Pre-election polls showed Dorinha leading or in a technical tie, though the final margin proved narrower than many surveys projected. Trader positioning favoring Vicentinho at 56% reflects the tight first-round result, historical patterns where the top finisher has prevailed in prior Tocantins runoffs, and early second-round alliance-building by both sides. Key variables include turnout shifts, consolidation of third-place votes (notably Laurez Moreira at roughly 11%), and any late endorsements or campaign developments before the decisive vote. The race remains competitive given the small first-round gap and undecided voters.