**Douglas Ruas (PL) secured the Rio de Janeiro governorship in the first round of the October 4, 2026 election after the TSE upheld the TRE-RJ ruling barring Anthony Garotinho (Republicanos) and annulled his roughly 274,000 votes.** This retotalization lifted Ruas from 49.27% to 50.88% of valid votes, above the 50% threshold required to avoid a runoff, while Eduardo Paes (PSD) stood at 44.16%. Ruas, the Alerj president and a PL-aligned police officer backed by Flávio Bolsonaro’s network, benefited from Garotinho’s disqualification and the consolidation of conservative support. Paes conceded following the TSE decision, and the TRE-RJ is set to proclaim the final result on October 15. Trader pricing reflects this confirmed outcome, with limited scope for reversal absent successful last-minute legal challenges.