Recent polling and first-round results position Flávio Bolsonaro as the clear favorite in Brazil’s October 25 runoff against Lula, while U.S. Senate forecasts give Democrats a modest edge for majority control on November 3. In Israel, however, the October 27 Knesset vote remains highly competitive, with Gadi Eisenkot’s Yashar party and Benjamin Netanyahu’s Likud bloc trading narrow leads in seat projections and neither side securing a clear path to 61 seats. Naftali Bennett’s party trails but stays relevant in coalition math. These cross-cutting uncertainties—particularly Israel’s unresolved bloc balance—prevent any single three-way combination from exceeding low-30s probability, sustaining a fragmented market where multiple Bolsonaro-led outcomes cluster closely together.