Recent first-round results on October 4, with Flávio Bolsonaro at 47% and President Lula da Silva at 45% of valid votes, have shifted momentum toward the Liberal Party candidate ahead of the October 25 runoff. Multiple post-election surveys, including AtlasIntel, Datafolha, Ipespe, and PoderData, show Flávio leading by 4–6 points on valid votes, reflecting voter priorities on the economy, crime, and Lula’s 50% disapproval rating. Tight polling margins, combined with potential abstention, blank ballots, and undecided voters, sustain uncertainty around the exact victory spread. Trader consensus on a narrow 4–8% outcome aligns with these trends, while late campaign broadcasts and turnout patterns in key regions could still widen or narrow the gap before election day.