Lula’s commanding position in Sergipe for the October 25 runoff reflects the state’s consistent Northeast voting patterns and his decisive first-round performance, where he captured 62.75% statewide and won every municipality. Multiple September and early October surveys, including Real Time Big Data and Quaest, showed him leading Flávio Bolsonaro by 28–34 points in head-to-head scenarios, aligning with longstanding PT support among the region’s electorate. Trader consensus at 98.2% for Lula incorporates these regional dynamics alongside national runoff polling that remains tighter elsewhere. Shifts could still arise from unusually high abstention, last-minute campaign events, or turnout surges among opposition voters, though such changes would need to overcome established local preferences.