Lula maintains a commanding position in Rio Grande do Norte for the October 25 second round due to the state's consistent support for the PT candidate in recent cycles and his decisive first-round performance there, where he captured nearly 60% of valid votes against Flávio Bolsonaro. Multiple September polls from institutes including Exatus, Quaest, and ITEM showed Lula ahead by 20–35 points statewide, reflecting approval ratings near 59% for his federal administration and elevated rejection levels for the PL opponent. Northeast voting patterns, regional economic priorities, and limited inroads by other national figures reinforce this edge among traders. A late swing would require substantial shifts in turnout or unexpected national developments that have yet to materialize in state-level data.