Lula holds an 81.5% implied probability of finishing first in Pará during the October 25 runoff, reflecting consistent state-level polling advantages over Flavio Bolsonaro at 19.5%. Recent surveys, including AtlasIntel’s early October fieldwork, showed Lula ahead by roughly nine points among valid votes in a hypothetical second-round matchup, building on his 49.9% first-round share in the state versus Bolsonaro’s 44.5%. Pará’s voter base in the North has historically favored PT candidates, and local results from the October 4 first round reinforced this pattern even as national aggregates tilted toward Bolsonaro. Minor candidates remain marginal in state data, leaving the contest centered on these two contenders. Traders appear to weigh the state-specific polling edge and regional voting patterns more heavily than the tighter national picture.