In Amapá, the first-round presidential results produced an extremely narrow contest, with Lula edging Flávio Bolsonaro by just 225 votes out of roughly 465,000 valid ballots cast on October 4. Traders assign Flávio an 83.5% implied probability of finishing first in the October 25 runoff, reflecting the candidate’s broader strength across 15 states, alignment with the decisive state-level victory of Dr. Furlan (PSD) for governor, and patterns of right-leaning consolidation observed in pre-election surveys. Lula’s 12% odds capture the limited upside from his first-round plurality and traditional support in parts of the North, though the state’s overall electoral map and turnout dynamics appear to favor the challenger in the head-to-head. The market therefore prices the outcome as a contest between national momentum and localized first-round margins.