Lula maintains a commanding lead in Alagoas for the presidential runoff due to entrenched voter support across Brazil's Northeast, where recent state-level polls from September consistently placed him 15–20 points ahead of Flávio Bolsonaro. Surveys showed the incumbent at 51–52% in first-round scenarios and 53–58% in head-to-head matchups, supported by approval ratings near 58% and lower rejection levels than his main rival. These patterns align with historical voting trends favoring PT candidates in the region. Trader pricing reflects this gap, though outcomes could still shift with unusually low turnout, last-minute campaign events, or broader national momentum changes before the October runoff.