**Omar Aziz (PSD) advanced to the October 25 runoff for Amazonas governor after finishing first in the October 4 first round with roughly 41% of valid votes, well ahead of Professora Maria do Carmo (PL) at 24% and incumbent Roberto Cidade (União Brasil) at 22%.** Recent polling, including a PoderData survey conducted October 8–11, shows Aziz leading the runoff 56%–44% among valid votes, with a larger margin among women and broad expectations of victory. Aziz dominated most interior municipalities in the first round, while Do Carmo performed strongest in Manaus and a few other cities. These results and the latest survey data have shaped trader consensus around Aziz as the clear favorite, with minor candidates effectively eliminated and limited scope for late shifts absent major developments before the runoff.