Recent polling from Quaest released on October 13 shows Omar Aziz leading Professora Maria do Carmo by 14 points in the Amazonas gubernatorial runoff, with Aziz at 51% and his PL opponent at 37% among likely voters. This follows Aziz’s first-round plurality of 40.63% against 24.49%, built on strong interior municipal support despite trailing in Manaus. With the October 25 vote eleven days away, 16% of respondents indicate they could still switch, sustaining uncertainty around final margins. The first post-runoff debate highlighted policy differences on health and labor rules, while both candidates aligned with national presidential contenders. These dynamics inform trader assessments of Aziz’s likely victory range versus narrower or upset outcomes.