The high trader consensus against Trump renaming the Strait of Hormuz by year-end stems from structural limits on unilateral executive action over an international waterway governed by longstanding maritime law and requiring coordinated approval from multiple nations including Iran, Oman, and the UAE. No administration statements, executive orders, or diplomatic initiatives have proposed or advanced such a change. Historical precedent shows geographic features receive new designations only through treaties, UN processes, or broad international consensus rather than domestic decree. Late developments that could shift odds include an unexpected multilateral agreement, a formal White House proposal tied to sanctions negotiations, or a symbolic but non-binding US action, though all remain remote given current diplomatic postures and the absence of supporting policy signals.