Ongoing military tensions and Iranian assertions of control over the Strait of Hormuz continue to suppress commercial traffic well below pre-crisis levels, with AIS-visible crossings averaging under 10% of the historical baseline as of mid-October 2026. Recent projectile strikes on multiple tankers in early October, combined with Iran's rejection of U.S. responses to its reopening conditions via Qatari intermediaries, have reinforced trader views that a return to normal flows by year-end remains unlikely. U.S. naval coordination of limited transits, Iranian requirements for permits and fees, and persistent high threat levels from the IRGC have sustained the restricted status since the February 2026 escalation. These factors, absent a major diplomatic breakthrough, underpin the market's strong consensus against normalization within the resolution window.