Brazilian expatriate voting patterns have historically favored Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva over domestic results, underpinning his 65.5% implied probability of finishing first abroad in the second round. This edge stems from the diaspora’s alignment with Lula’s social welfare priorities and international outreach, which often resonate more strongly outside Brazil than with domestic voters. Flavio Bolsonaro trails at 34%, drawing from conservative expatriate segments but constrained by narrower appeal in key overseas communities. The even 50% odds on other listed candidates reflect trader views of their limited differentiation in abroad ballots. With the runoff approaching, factors such as turnout among eligible voters abroad and any final policy contrasts on economic or diplomatic issues remain central to probability shifts.