Lula leads trader consensus at 66% for first place among Brazilian voters abroad in the October 25 runoff, ahead of Flávio Bolsonaro at 34%, reflecting first-round patterns where the incumbent secured 47.57% of valid exterior votes to Flávio’s 43.49%. Lula prevailed in 64 countries, driven by strong margins in Europe including Portugal, while Flávio dominated key population centers in the Americas such as the United States and Japan. High abstention exceeding 62% among nearly 917,000 registered overseas voters leaves room for mobilization in the final weeks, with regional diaspora concentrations and any shifts in turnout from eliminated candidates’ supporters shaping the outcome. The market prices embed these geographic and participation dynamics ahead of TSE reporting on exterior sections.