Lula holds a clear edge among Brazilian voters abroad heading into the October 25 runoff, reflecting his stronger performance in the October 4 first round where he captured 47.6% of valid overseas ballots to Flávio Bolsonaro’s 43.5%. The incumbent prevailed in 64 countries, driven by large margins in Europe—particularly Portugal, Germany, France, and Spain—while Flávio dominated the United States and Japan, the biggest single overseas blocs. With roughly 917,000 eligible diaspora voters and neither candidate reaching 50% domestically, the second-round contest abroad hinges on turnout patterns in these key expatriate communities and the same geographic divides observed in the opening round. Other listed candidates remain long shots based on first-round results.