Mailza Assis (PP) holds a commanding position in the Acre gubernatorial runoff market after securing 49.76% of valid votes in the October 4 first round, advancing against Senator Alan Rick (Republicanos) at 32.27%. As incumbent governor since April 2026—following Gladson Cameli’s resignation to pursue a Senate seat—she benefits from an established administration, a broad coalition under the “Avança Acre” banner that includes PP, União Brasil, MDB, PL, and PDT, and recent endorsements such as former first-round supporter Ilderlei Cordeiro’s switch. The October 25 runoff begins with a fresh count, yet the 17-point first-round margin and consolidation of eliminated candidates’ votes have shaped trader consensus around her lead. Key variables include turnout, the distribution of Tião Bocalom’s and Thor Dantas’s supporters, and any late campaign shifts before ballots close.