Recent Iranian drone strikes on Kurdish opposition bases in Iraq’s Kurdistan Region, including operations against the Komala group in late October 2026, continue a pattern of more than 1,000 such attacks since February. These actions occur alongside Iraq’s closure of key border crossings with Iran for security upgrades, amid disputes over smuggling and militia movements. Baghdad has also investigated suspected Israeli strikes on Iranian-supplied weapons caches held by Popular Mobilization Forces factions. Diplomatic talks involving Saudi Arabia, Turkey, and Pakistan in Tehran, combined with Iraqi efforts to enforce militia disarmament timelines and maintain neutrality during U.S.-Israel-Iran tensions, shape trader assessments of escalation risks through the end of 2026.