Geopolitical tensions and security risks from the ongoing Hormuz crisis remain the dominant driver of trader sentiment, with AIS-visible commercial transits averaging just 7.0 ships per day over the latest week—roughly 8% of the pre-crisis baseline near 85 daily. Recent daily counts (8 on October 26, 3–11 in prior days) reflect Iranian restrictions, vessel attacks, mandatory routing, and widespread AIS-dark operations, even as U.S.-coordinated southern-corridor escorts and limited diplomatic talks provide modest support. Brent crude near $114–116 per barrel embeds a persistent risk premium, while weekly preliminary data around 130 transits (subject to upward revision) underscore counting uncertainty. With outcomes clustered tightly between 20–34 ships, the market prices in variable dark-transit volumes and potential last-minute shifts from escalation or de-escalation ahead of elections and regional negotiations.