**Traders assign the highest probability (62%) to Israel striking exactly four countries in 2026, with five at 15% and higher numbers below 4%.** This positioning reflects confirmed major operations earlier in the year, primarily large-scale airstrikes on Iran beginning in late February that included strikes on Tehran and other sites, alongside repeated actions against Hezbollah targets in Lebanon. Additional strikes have occurred near the Lebanon-Syria border and in other limited contexts, establishing a core set of three to four nations. Recent October developments show continued IDF operations focused on existing fronts in Gaza and Lebanon, heightened alerts ahead of Israeli elections, and no verified new cross-border airstrikes expanding the count significantly. Escalation risks tied to Iran tensions, Houthi activity, or Syrian developments remain, but the absence of fresh major campaigns in the past month has reinforced the market's view that the total is unlikely to exceed four or five by year-end.