Recent polling averages place both the Netanyahu-aligned bloc and the main opposition parties around 50–54 seats in the 120-seat Knesset, well short of the 61 needed for a majority, with Arab lists holding roughly 13 seats that neither side reliably incorporates. The October 27 election follows a full four-year term, yet persistent bloc divisions—exacerbated by mutual refusals among opposition leaders to serve with Netanyahu and limited surplus-vote agreements—have kept projected totals stable in the low-to-mid 50s across multiple surveys. Small parties hovering near the 3.25% threshold add further uncertainty but rarely alter the overall shortfall. This fragmented outcome under proportional representation underpins trader expectations that no single coalition will secure a governing majority.