Persistent security concerns stemming from the Houthi embargo on Saudi-linked shipping since July, coupled with territorial advances and missile activity around the strait in September and October, have capped weekly transits near 260–290 despite a gradual return of container services. Recent data show stability, with 262 crossings reported for the prior week ending around October 25 and four-week averages holding at 280–287, reflecting operators’ willingness to transit under escort amid elevated but contained risks rather than broad rerouting. This positions the 190–209 range as the leading outcome at 39% implied probability, as traders price in modest downside from potential flare-ups or selective avoidance while acknowledging the absence of a full closure. Key near-term catalysts include ongoing diplomatic engagements involving Saudi Arabia and regional actors, alongside any escalation in Houthi operations that could further pressure laden tanker and container flows.