Ongoing US-Iran negotiations under the June 2026 memorandum of understanding form the primary driver of trader sentiment on a final nuclear deal. That interim accord ended active hostilities from the February 2026 conflict, reopened the Strait of Hormuz, provided sanctions relief and frozen-asset access in exchange for maintaining the nuclear status quo, and set an extendable 60-day window for addressing enrichment limits, highly enriched uranium stockpiles, inspections, and ballistic missiles. In October 2026, Washington has reiterated demands for meaningful enrichment reductions while rejecting certain Iranian proposals linking full sanctions relief to Hormuz access; Tehran has reaffirmed its non-weaponization pledge. US midterms on November 3 add timeline pressure, with officials signaling productive talks alongside continued military readiness.