Allyson Bezerra of União Brasil leads the Rio Grande do Norte governor race at 83.5% implied probability in the Polymarket, ahead of Cadu de Lula at 15.5%, reflecting the first-round outcome on October 4 that advanced the two candidates to the October 25 runoff. Allyson secured 36.94% of valid votes to Cadu’s 36.16%, with Álvaro Dias of the PL taking third at 26.71% and failing to advance. Pre-election surveys had consistently shown Allyson ahead in the multi-candidate field, bolstered by his strong 2024 reelection as Mossoró mayor and broad coalition support, while Cadu drew backing from the PT base. The narrow first-round margin and limited remaining campaign window keep the contest competitive, though trader positioning favors Allyson’s path to victory.