Iran’s nuclear chief Mohammad Eslami stated in early October 2026 that Tehran will under no circumstances abandon uranium enrichment or surrender its stockpile, directly countering U.S. demands for meaningful capacity reductions voiced by Vice President JD Vance. Recent diplomatic exchanges between Washington and Tehran have produced a tentative ceasefire extension but remain deadlocked over enrichment limits and stockpile disposition, with facilities already damaged by prior strikes and reconstruction activity noted at related sites. Traders assign a 96.8% probability to “No” because these positions show no pathway to full Iranian agreement by October 31. Late diplomatic breakthroughs or shifts in negotiation terms could still alter the outcome before the deadline.