Flávio Bolsonaro enters the October 25 runoff with overwhelming trader support for first place in Tocantins, reflecting his first-round statewide win of 50.44% to Lula’s 43.42%. This marks a reversal from 2022, when the incumbent carried the state. Pre-election surveys from Paraná Pesquisas and AtlasIntel showed the PL candidate leading or tied locally, consistent with broader right-wing gains across the Center-West and North. Lula remains competitive nationally in the second round, yet Tocantins voter patterns, PL organizational strength, and limited remaining campaign events within the resolution window reinforce the current market consensus. A sudden shift in turnout or late regional developments could still alter the margin, though such scenarios appear limited at this stage.