Ahmed al-Sharaa’s consolidation of power as Syria’s transitional president, including territorial unification after the 2026 SDF integration agreement, sanctions relief, and repeated high-level engagements with U.S., Turkish, and Gulf leaders, underpins the 96% trader consensus that he will remain in office through December 31, 2026. His five-year mandate from the 2025 constitutional declaration and ongoing diplomatic rehabilitation have reduced near-term removal risks from domestic rivals or external actors. Recent protests over fuel prices and persistent economic pressures highlight vulnerabilities, yet no organized challenge has displaced his authority. Late-stage developments such as a major security escalation with Israel, abrupt health events, or widespread unrest could still shift probabilities before the resolution date.