Syria’s post-Assad government has prioritized severing Iranian supply corridors and dismantling Tehran-aligned militias, prompting Iranian warnings of retaliation against over 100 targets if Damascus intensifies operations. Iran conducted a July 2026 strike near al-Tanf but has since focused military actions elsewhere amid the broader 2026 regional conflict, while Syria reinforces borders with Lebanon and Iraq to limit proxy movements. Trader consensus reflects these structural shifts, with low implied probabilities for direct Iranian strikes on Syrian territory by near-term deadlines due to diminished Iranian infrastructure and Damascus’s independent security posture. Scheduled diplomatic and military developments along the borders could alter risk assessments ahead of resolution dates.