**Erdoğan’s continued hold on power through late 2026 reflects his ruling alliance’s parliamentary majority, institutional leverage, and efforts to shape the 2028 election timeline.** Senior officials and coalition partner Devlet Bahçeli have publicly backed an early 2028 vote or constitutional steps that would permit his third presidential term, while key opposition figures including Ekrem İmamoğlu remain imprisoned or legally sidelined following corruption and other proceedings. Recent parliamentary reopening and municipal investigations have further consolidated the ruling bloc’s position without triggering immediate leadership challenges. Traders price a low probability of his exit by year-end because no scheduled election, health event, or coalition fracture has emerged to alter this trajectory before December 2026, though any unexpected parliamentary vote or legal development could still shift assessments.