**Recent diplomatic exchanges have failed to bridge core gaps between Washington and Tehran, sustaining trader expectations against a UNSC resolution endorsing a final U.S.-Iran deal by December 31.** A June 2026 memorandum of understanding outlined a 60-day (extendable) window for a comprehensive agreement on nuclear issues, sanctions relief, and reopening the Strait of Hormuz, with an anticipated UNSC endorsement. However, indirect talks via Qatar and others have stalled: Iran’s seven conditions for restoring maritime access remain only partially addressed, with Tehran describing the U.S. response as insufficient and halting further replies. U.S. officials, including Vice President JD Vance, have emphasized demands for meaningful reductions in Iran’s uranium enrichment capacity, while Russia and China continue to contest the legal basis for renewed sanctions monitoring and snapback measures tied to prior resolutions. Ongoing tensions, including post-UNGA proposals rejected by the Trump administration and disputes over IAEA access, have left no clear path to a finalized, endorsable accord within the remaining weeks of 2026.