Diplomatic frictions have surfaced in several capitals, most notably South Africa’s third demarche of U.S. Ambassador Leo Brent Bozell III over land policy and public commentary, yet these exchanges have remained within routine channels rather than crossing into expulsion. The Trump administration’s mass recall of career ambassadors and targeted actions against other nations’ diplomats have not prompted reciprocal expulsions of U.S. envoys. With roughly ten weeks remaining before year-end and no verified threats of formal persona non grata declarations, traders assign the “No” outcome an implied probability of 74.5 percent, reflecting the historical rarity of ambassador expulsions and the preference for lower-level diplomatic signaling in current bilateral disputes.