Recent diplomatic frictions, including U.S. demands that Iranian UN delegation members depart New York in early October 2026 and ongoing personnel realignments in the American Foreign Service, have not triggered reciprocal expulsions of U.S. ambassadors by host governments. Tensions with countries such as South Africa have involved diplomatic démarches rather than severance of ambassadorial accreditation, while broader U.S. efforts to fill vacancies and enforce policy alignment have proceeded without prompting host-nation retaliation. With no verified announcements or escalatory moves by foreign capitals through mid-October, traders assess the likelihood of any expulsion occurring before year-end as limited, reflecting the current pattern of managed bilateral strains rather than outright diplomatic rupture.