Recent U.S.-Iran negotiations, including the June 2026 MOU ending hostilities and the October Geneva framework with Iran-Oman talks on Hormuz navigation corridors and mine clearance, have reopened limited shipping but deferred final administration, fees, and nuclear provisions to a second 60-day phase. This timeline, combined with Senate rejection of a war powers resolution in September and midterm pressures on Republican candidates amid elevated energy prices, has shaped trader views that a comprehensive Hormuz Agreement is unlikely before the November elections. The implied probabilities reflect this sequencing, with any conditional Senate outcome hinging on post-midterm developments in the ongoing diplomatic process.