Traders assign an 89% probability against a US announcement of full withdrawal from Al Udeid Air Base by October 31 because recent developments show only limited, precautionary personnel adjustments rather than any official policy shift toward complete departure. Iranian strikes since the February 2026 conflict began have damaged facilities including radar systems, prompting earlier partial repositioning of nonessential staff confirmed by Qatari officials as a temporary force-protection measure. The base remains the forward headquarters for US Central Command operations, with ongoing diplomatic engagement between Washington and Doha and no public statements from the administration or Pentagon signaling a full exit. Congressional scrutiny of war damage and repair costs has focused on access restrictions and accountability rather than withdrawal timelines.