Persistent geopolitical tensions and active maritime disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz underpin the 99.2% market-implied probability that commercial traffic will not return to normal by October 31. Since the crisis began in late February 2026, Iranian IRGC strikes on tankers, a U.S. naval blockade, and permit requirements have kept AIS-visible transits at roughly 5–10% of pre-crisis levels, with recent attacks on October 10–11 reinforcing elevated war-risk premiums and selective routing. Oil flows remain constrained well below the typical 16–20 million barrels per day, supporting Brent crude above $105. While a rapid diplomatic breakthrough or ceasefire could theoretically enable normalization within the narrow window, the entrenched blockade dynamics and ongoing attacks make such outcomes remote tail risks.