Ongoing military tensions and Iranian enforcement actions have kept commercial traffic through the Strait of Hormuz at roughly 4–10% of pre-crisis levels since late February 2026, with AIS and IMF PortWatch data showing only 3–8 daily transits as of mid-October. Iranian forces have conducted repeated strikes on tankers in recent weeks, including multiple incidents between September 28 and October 12, while asserting control via permit requirements and warnings against unauthorized routes. A U.S. naval blockade and escort operations have further constrained normal flows, with war-risk insurance premiums remaining 15–30 times peacetime rates. Diplomatic efforts to resolve the underlying U.S.-Israel-Iran conflict remain stalled, with no verified agreements or de-escalation sufficient to restore baseline volumes before year-end. These sustained security and access barriers underpin trader expectations that traffic will not return to normal by December 31.