Israeli operations remain focused on southern Lebanon following the June 2026 U.S.-brokered framework agreement, with the IDF maintaining a security zone, conducting targeted strikes on Hezbollah infrastructure in areas such as Nabatieh and Bint Jbeil, and preparing forward defensive positions ahead of winter. Recent developments include the September destruction of extensive Hezbollah tunnel networks beneath the Ali al-Taher ridge and continued artillery and airstrikes through early October, alongside statements from Israeli officials indicating forces will remain in the zone for years to prevent Hezbollah reestablishment. No verified Israeli strikes or ground actions have targeted Beirut in the past 30 days. Diplomatic channels, including planned follow-up talks and Lebanese efforts to deploy its armed forces, continue amid periodic incidents like roadside explosives and drone activity. These factors shape trader assessments of escalation risks to the capital, with resolution hinging on any shift in Hezbollah attacks or Israeli strategic decisions within the market timeframe.