**Israeli officials described the September 30, 2026, Flydubai cockpit stabbing on a Dubai-Tel Aviv flight as a jihadist terror attempt by an Omani co-pilot who allegedly tried to crash the plane carrying mostly Israeli passengers, but they have not formally accused Iran or its proxies of directing or sponsoring the incident.** Netanyahu stated it was too early to determine Iranian involvement, while preliminary investigations by UAE and Saudi authorities, plus Israeli reviews, have pointed toward possible lone-wolf radicalization rather than state-backed action. With roughly three weeks remaining until the October 31 resolution date and no new public evidence or official statements establishing a direct Iran/proxy link, trader consensus assigns a 93% probability that no such accusation will occur. Ongoing regional tensions between Israel and Iran continue, yet the absence of confirmatory developments in the investigation has kept the market heavily weighted toward “No.”