Recent escalations in the Strait of Hormuz, including IRGC vessel attacks and subsequent U.S. strikes, have eroded confidence in a near-term U.S.-Iran diplomatic accord on maritime traffic and administration. The June Islamabad MoU's 60-day negotiation window expired without resolution, and current Iran-Oman talks on joint navigation corridors and mine clearance remain preliminary amid disputes over sovereignty, fees, and military access. With only days remaining until the October 23 cutoff, traders assign high probability to no qualifying agreement materializing. The conditional Senate outcomes reflect the 2026 midterm context, where control of the chamber hinges on voter turnout and battleground results, but the narrow timeline and unresolved geopolitical tensions limit upside for either party in the linked scenarios.