**Traders assign a 94.8% probability to “No” because any U.S. security guarantee for Ukraine remains conditional on a broader peace settlement with Russia that has not been reached.** Ongoing negotiations, including early 2026 talks in Paris, Abu Dhabi, and Miami involving U.S. envoys, have produced draft frameworks and coalition declarations emphasizing “Article 5-like” assurances, monitoring mechanisms, and multinational force support. However, these commitments are explicitly linked to a ceasefire or final agreement addressing territorial disputes, force limitations, and Ukraine’s non-NATO status. U.S. officials have consistently signaled that formal bilateral guarantees require congressional ratification and depend on resolution of core issues such as Donbas control, with no standalone agreement finalized by late 2026. Zelensky has described U.S. documents as largely or fully prepared for highest-level action, yet activation hinges on mutual alignment that faces persistent structural barriers. This conditioning, combined with the short remaining window to December 31, underpins the strong market consensus against an unconditional or timely U.S. commitment.