US President Donald Trump’s October 11 announcement of an immediate energy ceasefire on strikes against power grids and refineries has become the central development shaping trader views on any broader Russia-Ukraine ceasefire. Russia has not confirmed the limited truce, continued attacks on Ukrainian energy sites, and explicitly rejected Zelenskyy’s call for a 60-day full ceasefire to enable elections, reiterating its demand for a comprehensive long-term peace agreement instead. Ongoing diplomatic contacts between Washington and Moscow, combined with persistent frontline operations and Ukrainian readiness to match Russian restraint on energy targets, keep short-term de-escalation prospects uncertain while highlighting structural barriers to rapid agreement.